Amidst increasingly sensitive global markets regarding monetary policy, investors are once again focusing on next week’s Bank of Japan (BOJ) decision. Many are wondering whether a small change in Japan could trigger a major surge in risk assets including the Bitcoin price today. However, a closer look suggests that these concerns don’t fully reflect the true market conditions. This article will show how BOJ decision impacted to Bitcoin price today. Keep scroll for get the answer!
Understanding the Yen Carry Trade and Its Impact on Risk Assets include Bitcoin Price Today
For decades, Japan has maintained interest rates close to zero. Investors have taken advantage of this opportunity by borrowing cheap yen and investing it in high-yield assets such as US technology stocks and Treasury bonds. Charles Schwab once explained, “Going long on tech and short on the yen were two very popular trades, because for many years, the yen had been the cheapest major funding currency.”
With expectations that the BOJ will raise interest rates, there are concerns that the yen will strengthen and trigger an unwinding of the carry trade. If that happens, the risk of pressure on bitcoin price today will also increase, as was seen in August 2025.
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Why is the Actual Risk More Complex?
1. Interest Rate Spreads Remain Favorable
After the upcoming hike, Japan’s interest rate will only rise to around 0.75%. That figure is well below the US interest rate of 3.75%. This means the spread remains wide enough to keep carry trades attractive. Therefore, extreme pressure on today’s bitcoin price is not imminent.
2. The Hike Has Already Been Priced In by the Market
Long-term JGB yields are now approaching 1.95%, well above the benchmark interest rate. This indicates that the market has been anticipating BOJ tightening for a long time. InvestingLive analyst Eamonn Sheridan confirms, “Investors have already repositioned for BOJ normalization since 2023.”
With the market already prepared, the potential for sudden shocks to today’s bitcoin price is increasingly small.
3. Speculators Are Net-Long on the Yen
Data shows that speculative yen positions since February 2025 have tended to be bullish. This is very different from 2024, when investors were bearish and prone to panic buying. Under current conditions, the room for extreme volatility, including in today’s bitcoin price, is more limited.
The BOJ can indeed trigger market movements, but conditions are much more stable than last year. Volatility may appear in bitcoin price today, but it won’t be as dramatic as many fear. So do you think BOJ decision actually can make trigger for Bitcoin price?
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